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POLAND: NBP Say Unfreezing of Energy Prices in 2H-2025 Poses Uncertainty

POLAND

Highlights from the NBP's policy statement:

  • In the Council’s assessment, inflation is currently significantly boosted by rising energy carriers’ prices and by other regulatory factors.
  • The price pressure in the domestic economy is also stimulated by the marked wage growth
  • At the same time, demand and cost pressures in the Polish economy remain relatively low
  • The earlier appreciation of the zloty exchange rate acts in the same direction
  • In the coming quarters inflation will remain markedly above the NBP inflation target, driven by the effects of earlier increase in energy prices
  • In the medium term – under the current NBP interest rates level and amid the expected gradual decline in wage growth – inflation should return to the NBP target.
  • However, developments in energy prices, due to their probable unfreezing in the second half of 2025 [...] remain an uncertainty factor for the expected horizon for the return of inflation to the target

Full release here.

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Highlights from the NBP's policy statement:

  • In the Council’s assessment, inflation is currently significantly boosted by rising energy carriers’ prices and by other regulatory factors.
  • The price pressure in the domestic economy is also stimulated by the marked wage growth
  • At the same time, demand and cost pressures in the Polish economy remain relatively low
  • The earlier appreciation of the zloty exchange rate acts in the same direction
  • In the coming quarters inflation will remain markedly above the NBP inflation target, driven by the effects of earlier increase in energy prices
  • In the medium term – under the current NBP interest rates level and amid the expected gradual decline in wage growth – inflation should return to the NBP target.
  • However, developments in energy prices, due to their probable unfreezing in the second half of 2025 [...] remain an uncertainty factor for the expected horizon for the return of inflation to the target

Full release here.