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Poland To Increase Border Security, NBP's Maslowska Says Rate Cuts Might Be Possible In Q4

POLAND
  • Poland said that it will increase security at its border with Belarus after the relocation of Russia's Wagner Group to the country, which Warsaw thinks could mean "a new phase of hybrid warfare, phase that is much more difficult than we observe now." The details of new security measures are classified, but they may involve increasing military presence at the border and strengthening physical barriers. Government spokesman Piotr Muller said that there is no debate on introducing a state of emergency in the border regions.
  • NBP's Gabriela Maslowska told pomorska.pl that the central bank's rate decisions will be data-dependent, but "lowering interest rates might be possible in the final quarter of this year." However, it will only be possible when the MPC is certain that inflation is under control and is easing towards the official target. Maslowka added that for now, inflation remains elevated and it would be premature to discuss rate cuts at this point.
  • NBP's Ludwik Kotecki, ING's Rafal Benecki and former Finance Ministry official Slawomir Dudek warned that Poland's declining debt-to-GDP ratio is misleading and should not be seen as a margin for planning new spending. They argued that if inflation was close to the NBP target, debt-to-GDP ratio would be around 55% rather than 49%.
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