POWER
Poland’s April contract has dropped by around 4.6% on the week as above seasonal temperatures in Warsaw are forecast for the majority of next month, offsetting on week gains in European coal and emissions. Spot prices are likely to steadily increase next week as wind is expected to drop to a 4% load factor on 21 March from 36% on 17 March.
- Poland’s April baseload power settled at PLN395.86/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN395.45/MWh on 13 March, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- This is lower than its settlement on 7 March at PLN415/MWh.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 70.5 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal APR 25 down 0.1% at 97.25 USD/MT
- The April contract traded 30 times in 36 lots from 45 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- The contract opened at PLN398/MWh before rising to a daily high of PLN399/MWh and dropping to a daily low of PLN394/MWh. The contract ended the session at PLN397/MWh.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw were mostly revised up over 18-20 March and are expected to flip above the 30-year norm on 19 March – reaching as high as 14.8C on 25 March.
- Temperatures are expected to remain above the norm throughout the ECMWF month ahead forecasts, only dipping below for a few days towards the end of the month.
- Closer in, the day-ahead dropped to PLN468.04/MWh for Saturday delivery from PLN520.67/MWh for Friday amid typically lower weekend power demand.
- However, Polish wind is expected at a 9% load factor tomorrow from 15% today – which likely limited losses.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 36% load factor on 17 March (Mon) – which could cap gains from rising demand from the weekend.
- Wind will then steadily decline over 18-21 March from a 27% load factor to 4%.
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