POWER
Poland’s February has ended its three-session upward trend amid price falls in emissions and as temperatures in Warsaw have been sharply revised up and are now expected to remain above the seasonal norm until the end of January. However, losses have been somewhat limited amid gains in European coal.
- Poland Feb baseload power settled at PLN447.16/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN449.71/MWh on 15 January, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- The contract was on a three-session upward trend that began on 13 January before dropping today.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.2% at 77.79 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal FEB 25 up 2.4% at 106.75 USD/MT at 14:34GMT
- Average temperatures in Warsaw have been sharply revised up over 17-21 January by as much as 0.6C on the day and are now expected to remain above the seasonal average of around -1C until 30 January. Mean temps are seen as high as 4.75C towards the end of the month.
- The front-month contract traded 16 times in 22 lots down from 40 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- The contract opened at PLN445/MWh – the low for the day – before rising to PLN447.10/MWh and ending the session at a high of PLN448/MWh.
- Closer in, the day-ahead dropped from the previous session to PLN595.59/MWh for Friday delivery from PLN619.26/MWh for Thursday as wind is expected to rise to 3.54GW, or 38% load factor tomorrow from a 31% load factor today.
- Spot price losses were somewhat subdued as average temps in Warsaw are expected to drop slightly to 1.68C tomorrow from 1.83C today but above the seasonal average of -1.56C.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind is expected at a 23% load factor, or 2.15GW on 18 January, however, the cost could still fall amid lower weekend demand.
- Further ahead, wind expected between 5-24% load factors over 20-25 Jan (Mon-Sat). The highest amount of wind is anticipated on 25 Jan at 24%, with the lowest amount on 24 Jan at 5%.
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