POWER
Poland’s March ended its four-session upward trend to drop slightly on the day due to falling European coal prices and a sharp upward revision of average temperatures in Warsaw. However, elevated prices in EU ETS kept losses limited.
- Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN485.20/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN489.51/MWh on 10 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- The contract ended its upward trend that began on 5 February, with the contract declining from its record high on 10 February.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.2% at 82.81 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 1% at 102.65 USD/MT at 14:16 GMT
- The March contract traded 31 times in 31 lots from 22 lots exchanged in the previous session. Liquidity for the contract reached a fresh high since at least 12 December 2024, surpassing the previous high on 10 February.
- The contract opened at PLN485/MWh before rising to a daily high of PLN486/MWh and falling to a daily low at PLN482/MWh. It ended the session at PLN485/MWh.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw were revised up over 12-16 February by as much as 0.9C on the day. However, temperatures are still expected to be below the 30-year norm until 21 February before flipping above over 22-25 February.
- Closer in, the day-ahead rose to PLN574.34/MWh for Wednesday delivery from PLN529.90/MWh for Tuesday amid the unplanned 400MW curtailment at Poland’s 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant being extended to 14 February from 13 February.
- However, wind is expected to be at a 33% load factor tomorrow from 31% today, with average temperatures in Warsaw warming up to -2.45C tomorrow from -4.8C today.
Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at an 18% load factor on 13 February (Thur) – likely raising prices from the previous session.
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