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POLGBs Take Some Interest In Economic Data, NBP Speak

POLAND

POLGB space appears to have shown more interest in local data and central bank speak than the Zloty. POLGB yields faltered on the release of worse-than-expected wage data, which lent support to the disinflationary narrative, before second thoughts related to the imminent impact of beginning-of-year adjustments (including a higher minimum wage) prompted yields to move away from reaction lows. Their recovery was likely facilitated by pressure to the broader FI space and comments from NBP's Iwona Duda, who pushed back against any premature rate-cut talk (which is reflected in market pricing), despite being known as a member of the dovish majority in the rate-setting committee.

  • Meanwhile, EUR/PLN has traded with a steady bearish bias, lodging new session lows minutes ago. The pair last deals at PLN4.7083 and remains heavy. The Zloty is the best performer in East Europe, faring better than the likes of HUF, CZK or RON.
  • The market continues to look for NBP rate cuts within a year, with FRA 12x15 contracts trading at a ~112bp discount to 3-month WIBOR, the most popular benchmark for mortgages.
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POLGB space appears to have shown more interest in local data and central bank speak than the Zloty. POLGB yields faltered on the release of worse-than-expected wage data, which lent support to the disinflationary narrative, before second thoughts related to the imminent impact of beginning-of-year adjustments (including a higher minimum wage) prompted yields to move away from reaction lows. Their recovery was likely facilitated by pressure to the broader FI space and comments from NBP's Iwona Duda, who pushed back against any premature rate-cut talk (which is reflected in market pricing), despite being known as a member of the dovish majority in the rate-setting committee.

  • Meanwhile, EUR/PLN has traded with a steady bearish bias, lodging new session lows minutes ago. The pair last deals at PLN4.7083 and remains heavy. The Zloty is the best performer in East Europe, faring better than the likes of HUF, CZK or RON.
  • The market continues to look for NBP rate cuts within a year, with FRA 12x15 contracts trading at a ~112bp discount to 3-month WIBOR, the most popular benchmark for mortgages.