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MNI BRIEF: Bank Of Italy Downgrades 2024 Inflation Forecast

Italian inflation is set to fall to 1.3% in 2024, the Bank of Italy said in its macroeconomic projections on Friday, announcing a sharp downward revision from December projections that saw inflation at 1.9% due to lower energy and intermediate good prices.

The forecast assumes the international outlook "won't cause significant tensions on energy and financial markets.” With these assumptions inflation is seen at 1.7% both in 2025 and 2026, with the slight pickup due to rising wages.

Growth is seen at 0.6% in 2024, or 0.8% if adjustments for seasonal and calendar effects are removed. For 2025 and 2026 growth is expected at 1% and 1.2%, 0.9% and 1.3% without the adjustment. (See MNI SOURCES: ECB Still Divided Over Guidance As It Nears Cuts)

Risks for growth are tilted to the downside due to uncertainty over China and a greater impact from monetary tightening. Risks are balanced for inflation, the BOI said.

MNI Rome Bureau | +34-672-478-840 | santi.pinol.ext@marketnews.com
MNI Rome Bureau | +34-672-478-840 | santi.pinol.ext@marketnews.com

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