MNI BRIEF: Italy Lowers 2024 Growth Projection To 1%

The Italian government lowered its growth projection for 2024 to 1%, from 1.2% in November, but kept its fiscal deficit forecast at 4.3% of GDP, it said in on Tuesday.

In its new macroeconomic projections, Rome predicted a debt-to-GDP ratio of 137.8% this year, increasing by a further 2% of GDP over the following two years. For 2027, the Italian government sees debt at 139.6% of GDP.

The fiscal deficit is expected to come in lower at 3.7% of GDP in 2025 and to return to the EU’s 3% limit in 2026. Growth for 2025 and 2026 is expected to be 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.

This year’s deficit forecast was left unchanged despite the Superbonus programme which caused the government to miss its 2023 target by almost 2% of GDP. (See MNI: Superbonus Impact On Italy's '24 Budget Deficit "Limited")