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Free AccessMNI PREVIEW: Norges Bank To Hold On Mixed Covid Outlook
The Norges Bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at zero when it meets Thursday with the Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee also likely to again signal that there will be no hike before the second half of 2022.
With policy on hold near-term and quantitative easing and negative rates not in the bank's toolbox, the focus is firmly on the committee's guidance and quarterly collective rate paths, which are a mix of model-based outputs and judgement.
The Committee's collective view to date has been that policy should be kept on hold until there are clear signs of economic normalisation -- and its recent business survey along with the second Covid-19 wave weigh against predicting a speedy return to ordinary levels of activity.
RATE PATH
In September, the Committee edged its collective rate path higher near term, showing the policy rate moving up in the second half of 2022 but flattened the path a little so that it reached only 0.5% three years out.
Still, some analysts predict the first hike will come next year on the back of a relatively rapid economic recovery and financial stability concerns over a cycle of commercial and house price inflation and high debt levels.
But the key export-oriented oil industry and exports overall are expected to flatline in the next six months and the construction sector could contract by an annualised 1.5%. Against this backdrop, the committee could take the view that there will be little cost to a wait-and-see approach to Q1 developments before bringing forward its forecast for a rate hike.
Norges Bank's latest Regional Network Report found Covid-19 containment measures had acted as a brake on several sectors, with business contacts anticipating lower near-term growth than previously expected. Growth for the next six months was forecast at just 0.2% on an annualised basis, down from 0.4% in the previous survey.
Norges Bank, unlike other central banks, considers both financial stability and monetary policy on a single committee and it is likely to again highlight the potential threat to stability from its property sector.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
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