Polish Central Bank Publishes Outcomes Of Macroeconomic Survey

The NBP's March Macroeconomic Survey showed that uncertainty about inflation and interest-rate expectations of professional forecasters has eased but remains notably higher than the pre-2022 levels, while the uncertainty about GDP growth prospects remains elevated.

• The central bank notes that the surveyed forecasters lowered their 2023 inflation expectations and see it settling within the +11.1%-14.2% Y/Y range (50% confidence interval), with the median estimate being +12.5% Y/Y.
• According to mBank research desk survey results suggest that inflation expectations remain disanchored. The implied probability of headline CPI inflation averaging within the target band in 2025 is 24%.
• Analysts expect GDP growth to be between -0.1% and +1.6% Y/Y this year, with the median estimate being +0.8% Y/Y. The implied probability of a recession is 26%.
• The median forecast for the NBP's average reference rate this year is 6.69%, with the rate currently sitting at 6.75%.
• The full summary of the outcomes of the survey can be accessed here.