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POLITICAL RISK: US Election Odds - Betting Markets See Trump Pulling Ahead

POLITICAL RISK
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  • Betting agencies show Trump continues to pull further ahead. Polymarket is now at 60% vs 40%, while Kalshi is 58% vs 42% both in Trumps favor.
  • According to Polymarket, Trump has taken the lead in Nevada, with the odds now 55% v 45% this would give him lead in all 6 key swing states. Kalshi has odds slightly different with Harris leading in Michigan 51% v 49%, while Nevada is much closer at 51% vs 49% in Trumps Favor.
  • RealClearPolitics has Kamala leading at 49.2 vs 48.3, although momentum in Trumps favor after rising from 47.2 at the start of October, while Harris has held steady.
  • PredictIt now also shows Trump leading with a 54%, although down from a recent high of 55% on Monday, while they have Harris at 50%.
  • Looking at equities that will benefit from a certain party winning, The BofA and separately the Goldman Republican victory basket overtook the Democratic victory basket back on Oct 11th, both for the first time since the Sept 10th debate. The Trump Media & Technology Group stock price has also surged 143% since Step 23 lows.

Chart. PredictIt Presidential Winner

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  • Betting agencies show Trump continues to pull further ahead. Polymarket is now at 60% vs 40%, while Kalshi is 58% vs 42% both in Trumps favor.
  • According to Polymarket, Trump has taken the lead in Nevada, with the odds now 55% v 45% this would give him lead in all 6 key swing states. Kalshi has odds slightly different with Harris leading in Michigan 51% v 49%, while Nevada is much closer at 51% vs 49% in Trumps Favor.
  • RealClearPolitics has Kamala leading at 49.2 vs 48.3, although momentum in Trumps favor after rising from 47.2 at the start of October, while Harris has held steady.
  • PredictIt now also shows Trump leading with a 54%, although down from a recent high of 55% on Monday, while they have Harris at 50%.
  • Looking at equities that will benefit from a certain party winning, The BofA and separately the Goldman Republican victory basket overtook the Democratic victory basket back on Oct 11th, both for the first time since the Sept 10th debate. The Trump Media & Technology Group stock price has also surged 143% since Step 23 lows.

Chart. PredictIt Presidential Winner