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Poll: Macron, Le Pen Set For Run-Off, Macron Retains Lead

FRANCE

Latest hypothetical opinion polling from Harris Interactive shows incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and right-wing National Rally leader Marine Le Pen as the two most likely candidates to make the second-round run-off in next year's presidential election. The poll then shows Macron in a good position to beat Le Pen once again for a second term in office. The Macron-Le Pen second round takes place with either Xavier Bertrand or Valerie Percresse as the candidate for the Gaullist centre-right Les Republicains.

  • Harris Interactive poll: Scenario: Bertrand as LR (EPP) candidate: Le Pen (RN-ID): 28% (+1), Macron (LREM-RE): 25%, Bertrand (LR-EPP): 14%, Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 12% (-1). +/- vs. 21-24 May 2021. Fieldwork: 28-31 May 2021, Sample size: 1,316
  • Harris Interactive poll: Scenario: Pecresse as LR (EPP) candidate. Le Pen (RN-ID): 28% (+1), Macron (LREM-RE): 27%, Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 13%, Pécresse (LR-EPP): 10% (-1). +/- vs. 21-24 May 2021. Fieldwork: 28-31 May 2021. Sample size: 1,316
  • Harris Interactive poll: Run-off: Macron (LREM-RE): 54% (-), Le Pen (RN-ID): 46% (-). +/- vs. 21-24 May 2021. Fieldwork: 28-31 May 2021. Sample size: 1,316
  • In the run-off of the 2017 presidential election, Macron defeated Le Pen by a margin of 66.1% to 33.9%, with the latest polling showing a significant narrowing in the gulf between the two candidates since then.

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