Poll Shows PM Loses Support As Referendum Intentions Shift To No

The Australian’s latest Newspoll survey is showing that the government remains ahead of the opposition but that the gap is narrowing. It also indicated for the first time that those intending to vote No in the upcoming Voice referendum exceed the Yes group. The Australian believes that the future of PM Albanese is linked to the success of the referendum and he has lost support in June.

• In the June 25 Newspoll, the primary vote for Labor is steady at 38% with the Coalition +1pp to 35%. The 2-party preferred measure has narrowed to 54:46 from 55:45.
• Albanese remains the preferred PM but his support is down 3pp to 52%, the lowest since the May 2022 election. Opposition leader Dutton’s is up 4pp to 32%. Satisfaction with the PM is down 8pp to 10% and Dutton is +5pp to -9.
• A Newspoll survey conducted between June 16 and 24, when the referendum bill passed, showed 47% intending to vote No in the Voice referendum (up 4pp) and 43% Yes (down 3pp), a new low. It also requires a majority in a majority of states to change the constitution and the poll indicated that would not happen with the Yes vote exceeding No in only two states, and they have a higher number of undecideds.