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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Opinion polling ahead of the 14 May legislative election shows a tight race with no guarantee that one party will be able to carry a majority of seats in the 500-member House of Representatives. The main opposition populist Pheu Thai Party (PTP) has led in all recent polling, but this lead has narrowed in April with the centre-left progressive Move Forward Party gaining momentum. At the start of March PTP's support stood around the 50% level, but this has declined as Move Forward has gained ground, with the latest 14 April poll showing PTP leading Move Forward by 39% to 32%.
- This is also the case in preferred PM polling, where one of PTP's PM candidates - Paethongtarn Shinawatra - has fallen behind Move Forward candidate Pita Limjaroenrat in the latest poll. The rise in support for another PTP candidate, real estate mogul Srettha Thavisin, has split the PTP vote allowing Pita to gain top spot. The latest 14 April poll has Paethongtarn on 23.2% to Strettha's 16.7%, and Pita leading with 29.4%.
- A change in the electoral system since the 2019 vote could make the path to a majority easier. In the 14 May vote, 400 rather than 350 of the seats will be for single-member districts based on first-past-the-post.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling by Party (LHS) and Preferred PM (RHS), %
Source: NIDA, Suan Dusit, Nation, Daily News X Matichon, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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