SPAIN
Catalonia holds a snap regional election on 12 May after President Pere Aragonès dissolved the Catalan parliament following a failed budget vote in March. Given Catalonia's sizeable independence movement, and its significant representation in the Spanish economy (accounting for around 20% of the country's GDP), the election will garner notable political and market interest.
- Polls show the centre-left pro-union Socialists' Party of Catalonia (the sister party of Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez's PSOE) on course to win a plurality. Two pro-independence parties, the populist Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia) and the leftist Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) are vying for second place.
- An average of seat projections for the last week of April show how close the election is at present. The total for the pro-union parties - PSC, centre-right Popular Party (PP), right-wing Vox, and left-wing Comuns-Sumar - stood at 68 seats. The total for the pro-independence parties - Junts, ERC, and the far-left Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) - also stood at 68 seats. The balance could be decided if the right-wing pro-independence Catalan Alliance enters the parliament, but at present it is on the threshold of 3% support.
- The rhetoric both in Catalonia and the rest of the country regarding the situation in the community's politics remains visceral. PM Sanchez's opponents continue to call out the amnesty deal that has seen former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont allowed to return to the country and run for office in exchange for Junts voting in favour of Sanchez remaining PM.
- Given the PSC-PSOE is running against Junts and the ERC in Catalonia, but reliant on their support in Madrid, there is the potential for political instability both during and after the election period.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling for Catalan Election, Seat Projections
Source: ElectoPanel, KeyData, NC Report, GAD3, Feedback, YouGov, Target Point, Cluster 17, Sociometrica, GESOP, Simple Logica, Data10, Sigma Dos, Ipsos, MNI
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