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Polls Show Dip In Support For CDU Ahead Of State Elections

GERMANY

Some of the recent opinion polls from Germany have shown a small but relatively uniform decline in support for the senior federal coalition partner, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), known collectively as the 'Union'. While the CDU/CSU remains on course to win a plurality in the autumn federal election, there may be some internal concerns that CDU chair Armin Laschet may not be the person to lead the Union into the election, with significant talk about CSU head Markus Soeder potentially becoming the Union's chancellor candidate.

  • Sonntagsfrage YouGov: Union: 33% (-3), Green: 18%, Social Democrats (SPD): 16% (+1), Alternative for Germany (AfD): 11% (+1), Free Democrats (FDP): 8% (+1), Die Linke: 8% (-1). Fieldwork 18-22 Feb, Changes w/ 29 Jan-1 Feb. 1,619 respondents.
  • Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: Union: 35% (-2), Green: 19% (-1), SPD: 16% (+1), AfD: 10% (+1), FDP: 7% (+1), Die Linke: 7%. Fieldwork 23-25 Feb, Changes w/ 25-27 Jan. 1,202 respondents.
  • INSA: Union: 33.5%, Green: 17%, SPD: 16% (-1), AfD: 11% (+0.5), FDP: 9%, Die Linke: 8% (-1). Fieldwork 19-22 Feb, Changes w/12-15 Feb. 2,075 respondents.
  • Forsa: Union: 35%, Green: 19%, SPD: 16%, AfD: 8%, FDP: 8% (+1), Die Linke: 7% (-1). Fieldwork 16-22 Feb, Changes w/ 9-15 Jan. 2,505 respondents.
  • Infratest dimap: Union: 33% (-1), Green: 20% (-1), SPD: 16% (+1), AfD: 11% (+1), FDP: 8%, Die Linke: 6%. Fieldwork 15-17 Feb, Changes w/ 1-3 Feb. 1,025 respondents.
Baden-Wurttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate both hold state elections on 14 March. Worse-than-anticipated results in either or both these states could do more damage to Laschet's chances of succeeding Angela Merkel as chancellor.
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