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Polls Show FdI Holding Narrow Lead Over League As Right-Wing Power Shifts

ITALY

Latest opinion poll from SWG shows the right-wing nationalist Brothers of Italy (FdI) retaining a narrow lead over the right-wing populist League and centre-left Democratic Party (PD), as the power shift within the right of Italian politics continues.

  • Italy, SWG poll: FdI: 21% (+1), League: 20%, PD: 19%, 5-Star Movement (M5S): 16%, Forza Italia (FI): 7%, Action: 4%, Italian Left: 3%, +/- vs. 21-26 July '21. Fieldwork: 28 July - 2 August 2021. Sample size: 1,200
  • The rising support for the FdI - led by member of the Chamber of Deputies Giorgi Meloni - has accelerated in the months since Prime Minister Mario Draghi took office. The FdI is the only major party that sits in opposition to Draghi's national coalition gov't, making the FdI the main receptacle for protest votes and providing a clear delineation between the FdI and former Deputy PM Matteo Salvini's League on the right.
  • The broad presumption in the recent past has been that with the right-wing bloc of parties (League, FdI, Forza Italia) best placed to form a governing coalition after the next election (due by June 2023) that Salvini would lead the next gov't. However, should FdI be able to maintain its advantage over the League it could be Meloni who emerges best placed to lead a future right-wing coalition.

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