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Post-ADP React, Bonds Dip, Curves Extend Inversion

US TSYS
  • Tsy 30Y Bonds pare gains after Feb ADP comes out little stronger than estimated at +242k (+200k est), 2s tick lower but remain off overnight lows (101-11 -2.75 vs. 101-09.25 low), 2s10s curve falls to -110.375 low.
  • Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 at 42.4bp, May'23 cumulative 75.1bp to 5.324%, Jun'23 97.2bp to 5.545%.
  • Fed terminal rate climbs to 5.665% in Oct'23 vs. 5.46% before Tuesday's testimony.

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