Post-Election Gov't Rating Boost Dissipates Amid Unification Church Controversy

The approval ratings of Prime Minister Kishida and his administration dropped in a couple of opinion polls ran by the Nikkei and Kyodo over the weekend, suggesting that the positive impact of a victorious Upper House election on the government's popularity is running out of steam.

• The Nikkei/TV Tokyo poll showed that approval for the Kishida Cabinet fell 2ppts to 58% from 60% in the June survey amidst a notable drop in the evaluation of the government's COVID-19 countermeasures. The Nikkei highlighted that this was the second-worst result for the Kishida administration since its inauguration in October, the worst being 55% recorded in February. The proportion of those who held a positive view on steps taken by the government shrank to 56% in the latest poll from 63% recorded in June.
• The approval of Kishida's Cabinet registered a dramatic drop in the latest poll taken by Kyodo News, landing at the worst-ever 51.0% just weeks after soaring to a record high of 63.2%. Kyodo suggested that the slump in ratings was driven by controversy over the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's links to the Unification Church and the proposed state funeral for the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with 53.3% of respondents against holding a state funeral.
• Recall that Abe was fatally shot while on campaign trail ahead of last month's Upper House election, which was easily won by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Abe was murdered by a man resentful of the Unification Church, a controversial religious movement with substantial presence in Japan. The shooter cited Abe's alleged links and support to the Church as his motive.
• Some speculated that the tragic event may have generated some sympathy votes for the LDP. Such speculation is not unprecedented; the sympathy vote effect was credited for allowing the LDP to win big in 1980 (when incumbent Prime Minister Masayoshi Ohira died during the campaign period) and avoid defeat in 2000 (with election called soon after Premier Keizo Obuchi passed away), although it is hard to quantify the actual impact on voting intentions.
• While it is questionable if Abe's death affected public sentiment towards the LDP in any significant, sustainable way, it has put the party's links to the Unification Church in the spotlight. Intensified scrutiny of the party's relationship with right-wing movements, such as the Unification Church or the nationalist Nippon Kaigi, will be problematic for the ruling party, although it is not due to face an electoral test in the next three years.
• However, calls for individual investigations of lawmakers' ties with movements such as the Unification Church may affect power dynamics within the LDP. The death of Shinzo Abe, a highly influential figure within the ruling party, leaves internal politics in disequilibrium. If public pressure grows stronger ahead of the imminent Cabinet reshuffle, it may promote the marginalisation of some of the allies of the late former PM, leaving his ideological successors with less say over policies ahead of the FY2023 budget debate in autumn/winter.