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Post-LIBOR Settle Update: New 3Y High

US EURODLR FUTURES

Lead quarterly EDU2 trading weaker at 96.805 (-0.010) after latest 3M LIBOR set' +0.04228 to new 3Y high of 2.39057% (+0.09771/wk).

  • Balance of Whites through Reds (EDZ2-EDM4) -0.030-0.005, as forward rate hike expectations holding steady around 75bp in July followed by two consecutive 50bp hikes; Greens through Golds (EDU4-EDM7) steady to +0.010.
  • Recession expectations priced in front end: Dec'22/Mar'23 inverted at -0.125. Most inverted calendar spd: EDH3/EDH4 extends to -0.745.
  • Light overnight option volume, buyers of short Dec 100.5 calls at 1.0 -- looking for futures to price in rate cuts back to 0.0 by end of 2023.

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