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Recent Gains Considered Corrective


Implied Hikes for Second Half of 2023 Rising


Trend Needle Points North Despite Recent Pullback

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Post-LIBOR Settle Update:


Lead quarterly Dec'22 (EDZ2) remains under pressure at 94.80 (-.030) after latest 3M LIBOR set' climbs +0.03386 to new 14Y high of 4.35843% (+0.16472/wk).

  • Short end pricing 75bp hike at Nov FOMC stable, with another 75bp in Dec near fully priced in while the balance of Whites (EDH3-EDU3) trade -0.025 to steady, Reds (EDZ3-EDU4) steady to +0.010, Greens through Golds (EDZ4-EDU7) -0.015-0.070, Golds underperforming.
  • Current inversions: Mar'23/Jun'23 -0.035; Dec'22/Red Dec'23 at -0.185, Mar'23/Red Mar'24 at -0.510, Jun'23/Red Jun'24 at -0.670. Inversion flattens out in Blues (EDZ5-EDU6) trading 95.865-95.875.
  • Recent option positioning: mixed low delta trade continued through the prior session, rate hike insurance buyers ongoing, early upside calls looking for a bounce in the underlying, particularly Dec expirys as futures price in two more 75bps hikes by year end - evaporated in the second half.

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