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Post-Payrolls Decline Continues As USD Rallies


AUDUSD was down further on Monday as the USD continued its post-payrolls rally. The pair is down 0.6% to 0.6881, while the DXY is up 0.7%. Aussie was a mid-range G10 performer against the USD.

  • AUDUSD is back above the 50-day EMA of 0.6875 showing that the broader uptrend remains intact. The recent correction is an unwinding of overbought conditions. Key resistance and bull trigger is at 0.7158, the February 2 high.
  • Aussie is down 0.2% against the kiwi and is trading around 1.0920. AUDJPY is 0.5% higher at 91.27. AUD is down 0.3% against the GBP to 0.5726 but up 0.1% against EUR to 0.6417.
  • Equity markets were down across the board as the less optimistic sentiment from Friday continued. The S&P was down 0.6% and the Eurostoxx -1.2%. VIX was down 0.4pp to 18.3%. Oil prices rallied after moving to oversold territory and WTI finished 1.5% higher at $74.46/bbl. Copper is also off of its intraday low but is still down 0.5% on the day. Iron ore is $122.20.
  • Today the RBA meets and another 25bp hike to 3.35% is widely expected. See MNI RBA Preview - February 2023 for more details. Before that trade data for December is released and the trade surplus is expected to narrow marginally to $12.45bn.

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