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Post-Payrolls Sell-Off Extends With Heavy Volumes

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trades 3.5-6.5bp cheaper, with the sell-off led by 3s as shorter-term rates continue to come under pressure after Friday’s payrolls with additional impetus from Chair Powell’s weekend remarks (see STIR bullet) plus a hawkish BoJ FT sources piece.
  • Further out the curve, 10Y yields are off earlier highs just shy of 4.10% but at 4.075% consolidate Friday’s return to a 4 handle after Thursday's low of 3.815%.
  • TYH4 have dealt lower overnight, at 111-10 (- 11) close to earlier lows of 111-04, on very heavy volumes of 570k. The sell-off has exposed a key support at 110-26 (Jan 19 low).
  • ISM services headlines data after last month’s surprise slump in the employment component, before the Fed’s SLOOS report even if it might be seen as somewhat stale having missed latest NYCB concerns.
  • Data: S&P Global US Serv/Comp PMI Jan final (0945ET), ISM Services Jan (1000ET)
  • Fed: Goolsbee (’25) on BBG TV (1000ET), Bostic (’24) welcoming remarks (1400ET), SLOOS (1400ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $79B 13W, $70B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
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  • Cash Tsys trades 3.5-6.5bp cheaper, with the sell-off led by 3s as shorter-term rates continue to come under pressure after Friday’s payrolls with additional impetus from Chair Powell’s weekend remarks (see STIR bullet) plus a hawkish BoJ FT sources piece.
  • Further out the curve, 10Y yields are off earlier highs just shy of 4.10% but at 4.075% consolidate Friday’s return to a 4 handle after Thursday's low of 3.815%.
  • TYH4 have dealt lower overnight, at 111-10 (- 11) close to earlier lows of 111-04, on very heavy volumes of 570k. The sell-off has exposed a key support at 110-26 (Jan 19 low).
  • ISM services headlines data after last month’s surprise slump in the employment component, before the Fed’s SLOOS report even if it might be seen as somewhat stale having missed latest NYCB concerns.
  • Data: S&P Global US Serv/Comp PMI Jan final (0945ET), ISM Services Jan (1000ET)
  • Fed: Goolsbee (’25) on BBG TV (1000ET), Bostic (’24) welcoming remarks (1400ET), SLOOS (1400ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $79B 13W, $70B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)