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Post PCE Deflator React

US TSYS
  • Bit of two way trade as Treasury futures neared overnight highs post PCE deflator (TYH4 tapped 111-17), now extending lows after PCE and Personal Spending data:
    • PCE Deflator MoM (0.2% vs. 0.2% est, -0.1% prior), YoY (2.6% vs. 2.6% est)
    • PCE Core Deflator MoM (0.2% vs. 0.2% est), YoY (2.9% vs. 3.0% est).
    • Personal Spending higher than expected w/ up-revisions to prior: 0.7% vs. 0.5% est, prior upped to 0.4% from 0.2%; Real Personal Spending: 0.5% vs. 0.3% est.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures currently -3.5 at 111-06.5, yield 4.0366% (+.0383). Initial technical support 110-26 (Low Jan 19); resistance above at 111-21/112-26+ (20-day EMA / High Jan 12). Curves flatter, 2s10s -3.081 at -20.979.
  • Wrapping up the week's data later this morning: Pending Home Sales at 1000ET, followed by Kansas City Fed Services Activity at 1100ET.
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