February 13, 2025 20:33 GMT
US INFLATION: Post-PPI PCE Expectations Center Around Mid-0.20s% M/M
US INFLATION
As anticipated given the downside surprises in key PCE-related components of the January PPI report, analysts are downgrading their expectations for the core PCE print due out Feb 28.
- Attention turns to import price data Friday to round out the January core PCE estimates, which following CPI and PPI look centered in the mid-0.20s% M/M. That would mark an uptick from 0.16% prior but would still translate into a slowdown in the Y/Y rate to 2.6% from 2.8%, and of course would be well below the 0.45% M/M core CPI print.
January core PCE %M/M (plus any notable revisions):
- Citi: 0.22% (vs 0.33% pre-PPI 0.31% pre-CPI)
- JPMorgan: 0.24% (vs 0.27% pre-PPI)
- Nomura: 0.29%(vs 0.351% pre-PPI 0.28% pre-CPI) Oct and Dec likely each be revised by 1bp, while Nov likely revised down by 1.7bp.
- Morgan Stanley: 0.30%, with Dec revised about 1bp higher. They are tracking core services ex-housing at 0.25%.

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