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US INFLATION: Post-PPI PCE Expectations Center Around Mid-0.20s% M/M

US INFLATION
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America

As anticipated given the downside surprises in key PCE-related components of the January PPI report, analysts are downgrading their expectations for the core PCE print due out Feb 28.  

  • Attention turns to import price data Friday to round out the January core PCE estimates, which following CPI and PPI look centered in the mid-0.20s% M/M. That would mark an uptick from 0.16% prior but would still translate into a slowdown in the Y/Y rate to 2.6% from 2.8%, and of course would be well below the 0.45% M/M core CPI print.

January core PCE %M/M (plus any notable revisions):

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As anticipated given the downside surprises in key PCE-related components of the January PPI report, analysts are downgrading their expectations for the core PCE print due out Feb 28.  

  • Attention turns to import price data Friday to round out the January core PCE estimates, which following CPI and PPI look centered in the mid-0.20s% M/M. That would mark an uptick from 0.16% prior but would still translate into a slowdown in the Y/Y rate to 2.6% from 2.8%, and of course would be well below the 0.45% M/M core CPI print.

January core PCE %M/M (plus any notable revisions):

Keep reading...Show less