Potential Coup Underway In Niger, An Important Western Ally In Region

Reuters reportingthat soldiers have blockaded the palace of Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum in the capital Niamey. While the nation of Niger is a frontier market, it has in recent years been one of the West's closest allies in the region in working to combat Islamist insurgents in the Sahel and Sahara. Following a breakdown in relations with the ruling military junta in Mali in 2022, President Emmanuel Macron moved French troops deployed there to Niger instead.

• While any coup is unlikely to have any material financial market impact in the short term, the removal of the Bazoum gov't could see support for the West's anti-Islamist efforts in the region dry up. This in turn would risk broader social, political and economic instability that could result in population displacement and increased migrant/refugee flows to southern Europe across the Mediterranean.
• Given the major political implications of migration in Europe on gov't stability (long-standing Dutch PM Mark Rutte was brought down earlier this month over gov't divisions regarding refugees), increased risk of unrest in the Sahel could presage political upheaval in Europe further down the line.