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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: German Firms Expanding R&D In China
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1027 Mon; +2.85% Y/Y
Potential False Break Of USDCAD Bear Trigger
- The Canadian dollar has depreciated amid softer oil prices and a modest increase in UST yields relative to Canadian yields as larger Fed rate hikes become priced in.
- USD/CAD has retreated off an intra-day high of 1.2698 but still resides +0.3% at 1.2683 having earlier troughed at 1.2610, matching closely to the key touted support level of 1.2608 (Dec 8 low).
- Today’s price action points to a false break of the bear trigger at 1.2621 (Dec 31 low), signalling a potential bullish development. The focus now turns to resistance which is seen at 1.2748 (20-day EMA) and 1.2814 (Jan 6 high).
- Interestingly, the latest CFTC net speculative positioning data from Jan 4 showed a small increase in (still relatively low) CAD net bearishness, but it is worth noting that this was prior to Friday’s stellar jobs report.
- With a fairly light domestic data calendar and no scheduled BOC speakers, immediate sentiment is more likely to be driven by oil and other US factors, particularly with Powell and other Fed members speaking tomorrow and US CPI on Wednesday. For reference Canada CPI will be released on Jan 19 before the BOC rate decision/ statement on Jan 26.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.