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Potential Fed Vacancy Picks [1/2]

FED
  • Biden should nominate more Fed picks this week or before the holidays, according to Sen. Brown (D.), the Senate Banking chair, and White House press secretary Psaki.
  • By the end of January, there will be three Board vacancies open to be filled.
  • Most pressing is Vice Chair for Supervision, vacant since Randal Quarles’ tenure ended in Oct and with his Board term to end on Dec 31. The Trump appointee drove more lenient banking regulation.
  • Richard Cordray has previously been linked as the top contender but has drifted this week behind Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic in betting markets. Sarah Bloom Raskin sits in third.
  • Sen. Warren (D.) supposedly backs Cordray or Bloom Raskin for a firmer regulatory stance, whilst Bloom Raskin has arguably the stronger climate risk credentials.
  • Cordray, the former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director, would likely prove particularly contentious in the 50/50 Senate. When elected by Obama to the CFPB in 2012, his nomination was contested by strong Republican opposition.
  • We expect the main implications of a Cordray or Bloom Raskin nomination to be bearish bank stocks with little direct impact on rates in a role that tends to vote on monetary policy decisions in line with senior Fed leadership.

Odds On Who The Senate Will Next Confirm As Fed Vice Chair For SupervisionSource: PredictIt

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