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Potential Risk Of Small Downside Surprise To Core PCE Consensus

US
  • With PCE hitting at 0830ET, we note that the below number crunching from JPM, MS and UBS all point to risk of a small downside surprise to the Bloomberg consensus of +0.2% M/M for the core PCE deflator vs their range of +0.11-0.14 after the +0.59% M/M in June.
  • Headline estimates are closer to consensus of 0.0% M/M.


Analyst PCE Deflator Expectations (% M/M):

Headline

Core

JPM

Basically unch.

+0.14

MS

-0.04

+0.11

UBS

-0.04

+0.12

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