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Potential Trump Indictment Unlikely To Significantly Alter 2024 Equation

US

Various news outlets are reporting that the DOJ investigation into former President Donald Trump's alleged mishandling of classified government documents is nearing an indictment decision.

  • Politico reports that a 'target letter' issued to Trump signals a likely charging decision from DOJ Special Council Jack Smith’s, "now appears days, if not hours, away."
  • Former US Attorney Harry Litman said on 'Deadline: White House' yesterday, "I think Smith has made all his decisions. The fact that there was this meeting yesterday, only happens when everything's final.”
  • If an indictment is forthcoming, it would be the first federal prosecution of a former president but it is unlikely to significantly alter the 2024 presidential race with betting markets continuing to see Trump’s legal issues as largely inconsequential.
  • According to Smarkets, Trump’s implied probability of winning the Republican nomination dipped by around three percent after news of the ‘target letter.’
  • If an indictment comes, expect Trump to highlight the prosecution as an example of Democrats' ‘weaponisation of law enforcement' and use it as a fundraising opportunity as he did earlier this year when indicted by the Manhattan District Attorney.
Smith (DS) (SMDS) Market NewsHomepagePolitical Market NewsPolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Smith (DS) (SMDS) Market NewsHomepagePolitical Market NewsPolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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