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RIKSBANK: POV (1/2): We think that the Riksbank decision tomorrow has been
oversimplified by some. In our view, the market reaction even in FX will not
simply be a function of how much the repo rate path changes and that it will be
equally important how the Riksbank handle the QE reinvestment decision.
- The Riksbank has said that it will announce its plans regarding the potential
reinvestment of SGB1047 (the government bond maturing in Dec 2020). The Riksbank
hold SEK62bn of this bond and previously it has reinvested in advance of the
maturity so that the stock of bonds held never falls below the target.
- If the Riksbank was to reinvest the full amount in advance, it would hold
roughly 60% of the whole SGB market with a notable extension to duration for the
- The sell-side, even amongst local banks, is split.
- On the dovish side some expect full reinvestment with the repo rate path
showing the next hike pushed back to next year.