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### POV: A BREAK BELOW CROWDED.........>

DOLLAR-SWISS
DOLLAR-SWISS: ### POV: A BREAK BELOW CROWDED SUPPORT COULD OPEN RENEWED PRESSURE
ON USD/CHF
-Just today, USD/CHF has printed a new 32-month low at Chf0.9227. Below today's
price are layers of support which, if broken, could open up levels not seen
since the SNB broke the EUR/CHF peg in early 2015.
-The 2017 bear channel bottom, 2015 lows, and the 61.8% Fib level from pre- to
post-SNB are all layered between Chf0.9072 and Chf0.9200. A break below here
could open up the Chf0.88's in USD/CHF and a return to the 200DMA of ~Chf1.14 in
EUR/CHF.
-Despite the USD/CHF decline of close to 6% in 2018, there's no evidence that
the SNB have intervened to prevent any over-strengthening. In fact, Swiss sight
deposits have been largely flat (or falling) since the beginning of 2017. 
-The February fall in CHF/JPY will reassure the SNB that markets no longer see
the CHF as the safe haven it once was as markets favour the JPY when equity
markets are in turmoil. This would further steady the SNB's hand, particularly
as EUR/CHF remains above the post-2015 average.
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