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###POV: AND NOW FOR THE INTERESTING.............>

FED
FED: ###POV: AND NOW FOR THE INTERESTING QUESTIONS: The FOMC cleared up two key
areas of balance sheet policy Wednesday, but the biggest questions linger.
- First, the accompanying statement and Powell's prepared press conf comments
made official that the Fed will stick to the 'floor' policy system.
- Second, the FOMC revised its ongoing guidance (since Jun 2017) that it would
end balance sheet runoff 'if a material deterioration in the economic outlook
were to warrant a sizable reduction' in the Fed funds rate.
- That tied ending runoff to rate cuts. But that was replaced by: 'prepared to
adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization'.
- So the new, basic rules of the game that most had already assumed are now
official - large reserve balances will persist, and the runoff is more flexible
and not necessarily short-term rate dependent.
- Now, the big questions. MNI`s Fed correspondent got a vague answer from Powell
at the presser about the final size of the balance sheet/reserves, which is key.
- Other big ones include timing of end-runoff, and composition and weighted
maturity of assets - which we will explore in upcoming analysis pieces.

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