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UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

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Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

CHINA RATES

China Repo Rates Rise On Tuesday

JAPAN DATA

Japan Nov Retail Sales +2.6% Y/Y; 9th Monthly Rise

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###POV: Are Markets Under-pricing BoE.......>

UK VIEW
UK VIEW: ###POV: Are Markets Under-pricing BoE Rate Path?
- In wake of the large adjustment in Bank of England interest rate hike
expectations where the market was once pricing in a 90% chance of a hike in May
(tomorrow) but is only at 10% now, the risk appears to be the MPC might comes
across on the hawkish side despite the expected downgrade in UK growth forecasts
as there remains limited/no slack in the economy.
- According to MNI PINCH the chance of a 25bp rate hike at the August MPC
meeting is 66% with markets pricing a near 100% chance of the rate hike coming
in November. Next hike is then pried in For Sep 2019.
- It will be a tricky balancing act for the MPC as if they sound too dovish then
they run the risk of markets pricing an even less chance of a rate hike this
year which would go against even BoE Governor Carney's dovish comments from
April that a rate hike is still likely this year.
- If they sound slightly more hawkish however, markets will likely just bring
forward rate hike expectation to August but leave pricing of another rate hike
for 2019 which would still be inline with BoE thinking.

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