### POV - As main focus turns to the.....>

DOLLAR-YEN: ### POV - As main focus turns to the Japanese election on Sunday,

lets take a look at the possible outcomes.

- Early opinion polls suggest Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)

are likely to secure the two-thirds majority needed for changes to the

constitution. This would mean the continuation of 'Abenomics' and probably

another term for BoJ Governor Kuroda. Bond markets will also focus on the BoJ's

commitment to the yield curve control policy (YCC).

- However, if the LDP were to win with a smaller majority or even lose the

election, particular attention will be paid to monetary policy, although any

rash changes would seem unlikely.

- FX markets have priced in a convincing victory for the LDP party with any

immediate react seen shallow. Looking further ahead, UST yields are likely to

present downside risk, however history suggests an Abe victory would trigger a

buy signal for Japanese shares as was the case during his previous two triumphs

in Dec 2012 and Dec 2014. Based on this, dollar bulls could target a move toward

the Y115.00-50 area in the medium-term.