### POV: BOJ TO END 2019 ON A QUIET NOTE -......>

BOJ: ### POV: BOJ TO END 2019 ON A QUIET NOTE

- The final BoJ meeting of 2019 is set to be a subdued affair, with the Bank set

to leave its monetary policy settings & forward guidance unchanged. On the

domestic front, consumption data since the implementation of the sales tax hike

has been softer than expected, although the October typhoon will have added

further skew to the data. The government has reacted to these events with a

fiscal stimulus package, which will afford the BoJ some time to assess matters.

Further afield, international tensions have calmed, with a phase 1 Sino-U.S.

trade deal in the offing. Elsewhere, the movement of the 10-Year JGB yield back

to the 0% mid-point of the BoJ's permitted range will please the Bank.

- Base Case: No change in monetary policy settings & forward guidance. Could tip

hat to de-escalation of Sino-U.S. trade matters.

- Dovish risk: Increased worry over domestic situation, in the wake of the sales

tax hike & Typhoon Hagibis.

- Hawkish Risk: Hard to judge any overt hawkish risks, outside of optimism re:

the global backdrop.