### POV: BOJ TO STICK TO SCRIPT - The BoJ.......>

BOJ: ### POV: BOJ TO STICK TO SCRIPT

- The BoJ should leave its MonPol settings unch. on Thursday, with its

willingness to focus on economic matters down the road, relying on the idea that

the slowdown in the global econ is temporary. The Bank will also introduce its

forecasts for FY21/22. The hurdle to any tweaks in MonPol are high, especially

given the fact that the Golden Week holiday will be observed next week.

- Base Case: The Bank leaves its MonPol settings unch., and trims its short-term

CPI & GDP forecasts, alluding to the temporary nature of the global economic

slowdown. The Bank's FY21/22 CPI forecast undershoots the 2.0% target, but

likely prints at 1.5% or above. The Bank will reiterate that it stands ready to

ease if necessary, after Kuroda outlined potential methods of easing previously

- Dovish Case: The Bank alludes to the need to further easing, introducing

additional potential measures on top of the four previously outlined by Kuroda.

- Hawkish Case: Any comments alluding to further reductions in the Rinban based

on Q&A questions. As a reminder the Bank trimmed the size of 10-25+ Year

operations on Friday.