### POV: First Meeting Of The 20s To Be.........>

BOJ: ### POV: First Meeting Of The 20s To Be Subdued

- The BoJ should leave its MonPol settings & fwd guidance unch. at its 1st

meeting of '20, as it assesses the impact of the recent round of fiscal stimulus

& impulses from abroad, in the wake of Typhoon Hagibis & the well documented

domestic sales tax hike. The global environment has been a focal point in recent

BoJ communique, with a focus on the uncertainties that are evident, although the

easing of Sino-U.S. tensions is of course a +ve (albeit hard to quantify). The

aforementioned round of fiscal stimulus should allow the BoJ to nudge up its GDP

growth exp. for the current FY in its latest round of econ projections.

- Base Case: Policy unch., upward revision to GDP exp. for the current FY.

- Hard to see any real deviation from this given recent rhetoric from BoJ

Governor Kuroda.

- Worth remembering that the recent BoJ branch managers' meeting revealed that

three of the nine regions revised down their economic assessment covering the

previous three months, largely owing to external matters & the sales tax hike.

On the other hand, capex & the labour market were sources of encouragement.