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### POV: First Meeting Of The 20s To Be.........>

BOJ: ### POV: First Meeting Of The 20s To Be Subdued
- The BoJ should leave its MonPol settings & fwd guidance unch. at its 1st
meeting of '20, as it assesses the impact of the recent round of fiscal stimulus
& impulses from abroad, in the wake of Typhoon Hagibis & the well documented
domestic sales tax hike. The global environment has been a focal point in recent
BoJ communique, with a focus on the uncertainties that are evident, although the
easing of Sino-U.S. tensions is of course a +ve (albeit hard to quantify). The
aforementioned round of fiscal stimulus should allow the BoJ to nudge up its GDP
growth exp. for the current FY in its latest round of econ projections.
- Base Case: Policy unch., upward revision to GDP exp. for the current FY.
- Hard to see any real deviation from this given recent rhetoric from BoJ
Governor Kuroda.
- Worth remembering that the recent BoJ branch managers' meeting revealed that
three of the nine regions revised down their economic assessment covering the
previous three months, largely owing to external matters & the sales tax hike.
On the other hand, capex & the labour market were sources of encouragement.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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