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G20: ### POV: PROGRESS, BUT NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT
The Trump-Xi meeting delivered an outcome largely in line with exp., with no
huge breakthroughs, although some risk-relief will be felt in early trade.
- Trump noted trade talks are back on track, though the details reveal little in
the way of movement on the larger structural issues (hard to see ever coming
about with Trump as Pres), while both leaders are subject to domestic pressure
to not bend the knee. To recap the key agreements: 1) Trade talks will resume 2)
No fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, for now 3) No immediate decision on
matters surrounding Huawei, with the U.S. set to allow corporates to sell to
Huawei in areas that do not obstruct national security during the negotiations
4) China has trimmed its -ve investment lists 5) Trump noted that China agreed
to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products during negotiations.
- USD/CNH trades 4 figures or so lower at writing, with an equity bounce & FI
sell-off foreseen. Pricing of the Fed's July meeting will be eyed. Fed Fund
Futures priced a 28% chance of a 50bp cut later this month at Friday's close
(though recent Fed commentary has seen this move back from extremes).