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Powell Asked His Opinion On 2020's Forward Guidance

FED
  • Q: What would you say about 2020's forward guidance in hindsight?
  • A: We said we wouldn't lift off until we had achieved our dual mandate goals. The first look at the new framework we'd rolled out, people were saying "it's not credible, you'll never get inflation to 2%." Some of our critics who said inflation was too high were the same ones saying you'll never get to 2%, but that's what happened. We thought we needed to make a strong statement with that. It wasn't part of the framework. The December '20 guidance wasn't part of our overall framework, it was just guidance we put in place.
  • I'd say two things. One, I don't think that that has materially changed the situation, but I have to admit, I don't think I'd do that again. Ultimately, the situation evolved in a highly-unexpected way for all of us. And maybe the learning is that we have a little more flexibility than that. Did it matter in the end? I really don't think it did. I'm not sure it would have mattered if we'd been raising rates earlier. Lots of central banks were raising rates three months earlier and it didn't matter.

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