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Powell Explains Language Change, Good Evidence of Stronger Economy in H2

FED

Q: In statement, is removal of COVID reference posing risks "over the medium term" a postiive change that you now see the end game or more that you are worried it could last longer than you expect?

- A: We dropped in the medium term because it's the rollout of the vaccine, the arrival of new strains that are more contagious and dangerous. When we were thinking medium term we were thinking economic scars and things like that. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, there's good evidence to support a stronger economy in the second half of this year. If you look at private forecasts, vaccine rollout and CRA Act have pushed growth forecasts higher.

Think of the base case is a strong economy in 2nd half of 2021. The language says there's still considerable risks to the economic outlook, nonetheless that is a more positive outlook and that's how I would parse that for you.

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