Powell Flags Uncertainty of Impact of QT

Q: Why wait until June 1 for QT start? What's the estimated impact of QT? Why did you directly address the American people?

• A: It was, just pick a date. Nothing magic about it. Won't have any macroeconomic significance over time, I wouldn't read anything into it.
• I'd stress how uncertain the effect is of shrinking the balance sheet. We run models and make estimates but these are very uncertain. I can't be any clearer. Sort of one quarter percent, one rate increase over the course of a year at this pace, but with very wide uncertainty bands. We don't really know. Other estimates are much smaller than that.
• It's part of returning to more normal financial conditions. Our strategy is to set up a plan and let it operate and have the interest rate be the active tool of monetary policy.
• Re speaking the American people, I thought it was really important to remind that's who we work for, and that people all over the country are feeling how painful inflation is, and we're working hard on fixing it.
• Markets think our forward guidance is credible - the 2Y is at 2.80% now, in September it was 20 basis points. People are feeling those higher rates already.