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Free AccessPowell Presser Highlighted Uncertainty Of Credit Tightening Impact (1/2)
The FOMC had considered pausing in the days before the meeting, but there was "strong consensus" for a 25bp hike with recent data coming in stronger than expected.
- Powell described the banking sector turmoil as being at a "small number of banks" and "isolated", with the authorities able to handle it in the first instance. But the FOMC was still concerned about the broader macro impact, with it both too soon to determine the extent of potential financial tightening, or how monetary policy should respond
- No read, therefore, on the extent to which the FOMC sees the Fed funds tightening equivalent of the current banking sector episode ("You can think of it as being the equivalent of a rate hike, or perhaps more than that.").
- The change in statement language reflects uncertainty of the impact; Powell appeared to imply that amendment buys them more optionality in whether to raise rates in future.
- But he again pushed back forcefully against rate cuts ("not our baseline expectation" per the SEP).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.