Powell Shrugs Off Weak Aug NFP Due to Delta

Q: Do you expect a pickup in jobs in September? How would a weak September jobs report affect your plans?

- A: We have a unique situation where by many measures the labor market is tight: 11 million job openings, widespread reports from employers saying it's difficult to hire people and wages moving up.

• Our widespread view a few months ago is several things would coming together in the fall, including kids back to school expiration of unemployment... But delta happened. You have this very sharp spike in delta cases.
• Hiring and spending in these face to face service industries, travel and leisure just kind of stopped during those months. They will get back to work when it's time to do that. It just may take longer time. It didn't happen with any force in September and a lot of that as delta.
• I think if the economy continues to progress broadly in line with expectations and also the overall situation is appropriate, then I think we can easily move ahead at the next meeting. Or not, depending on whether we feel like those tests are met.
• [Re September number specifically to trigger taper] It's accumulated progress. For me, it wouldn't take a knockout, great, super strong employment report. It would take a reasonably good employment report for me to feel like that test is met. And many on the committee feel the test is already met.
• Others want to see more progress. I would say in my own thinking, the test is all but met. I don't personally need to see a very strong employment report, but I like to see a decent employment report. Again, it's not to be confused with the test for lift off which is so much higher.