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POWER: End of Day Power Summary: FR-DE Jan 2025 Discount Widens to Nov High

POWER
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French, Germany January 2025 futures have held onto losses towards the end of the session to track losses in both the emissions and TTF markets, with temperatures in NW Europe estimated to remain relatively in line with the seasonal average heading into early January. French January is currently at a €12.85/MWh discount to the German equivalent, widening on the day and a new November high.

  • France Base Power JAN 25 down 2.4% at 107.33 EUR/MWh
  • German Base Power JAN 25 down 1.9% at 120.14 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.9% at 69.2 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1.7% at 46.9 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal DEC 24 down 1.8% at 120 USD/MT
  • TTF prices are declining today but have recovered some ground following a headline indicating that Gazprom does not anticipate transit flows through Ukraine next year. The contract's first resistance is at €49.55/MWh, with support at €44.63/MWh.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is also trading in red to be weighed down by TTF and coal declines, with milder weather forecasts also adding some downward pressure.
  • The EU ETS 2 price under the upcoming scheme for building and road transport sectors is likely to start off at around €55/ton CO2e at the expected launch in 2027.
  • Power demand in NW Europe (Germany, France UK, Netherlands and Belgium) is expected to grow by 2.6% on the year, or 35TWh, to a total of 1,385TWh in 2025.
  • France’s CRE is issuing several recommendations to avoid the rising amount of negative priced hours.
  • The unplanned outage at the 1.33GW Flamanville 1 nuclear reactor has been extended by five hours to end on Tuesday 22:00CET, before ramping up for two days.
  • Vattenfall will curtail capacity at its 1.1GW Forsmark unit 1 to around 700MW on 27 Nov at 08:00 CET for 9 hours for “planned testing.”
  • Swiss hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 47 – declined by 4.2 percentage points last week to 68.6% of capacity, the lowest level since early July.
  • Axpo Nordic and Stegra have signed a three-year PPA to supply a total of 2.25TWh for Stegra’s green hydrogen, iron, and steel plant in Sweden, starting in 2027.
  • The Nordic's will apply a 15-minute trading period on the intraday market starting on 18 March 2025 for delivery the next day, with Sweden aligning its imbalance prices to the Nordic schedule.
  • The UK will launch bring forward a consultation on changing its EV mandate, while sticking to the deadline to phase out new petrol and diesel car sales by 2030.
  • Lithuania plans to expand mandatory energy audits and require energy management systems for high-energy consumers as part of new legislation aligned with EU energy efficiency directives.
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French, Germany January 2025 futures have held onto losses towards the end of the session to track losses in both the emissions and TTF markets, with temperatures in NW Europe estimated to remain relatively in line with the seasonal average heading into early January. French January is currently at a €12.85/MWh discount to the German equivalent, widening on the day and a new November high.

  • France Base Power JAN 25 down 2.4% at 107.33 EUR/MWh
  • German Base Power JAN 25 down 1.9% at 120.14 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.9% at 69.2 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1.7% at 46.9 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal DEC 24 down 1.8% at 120 USD/MT
  • TTF prices are declining today but have recovered some ground following a headline indicating that Gazprom does not anticipate transit flows through Ukraine next year. The contract's first resistance is at €49.55/MWh, with support at €44.63/MWh.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is also trading in red to be weighed down by TTF and coal declines, with milder weather forecasts also adding some downward pressure.
  • The EU ETS 2 price under the upcoming scheme for building and road transport sectors is likely to start off at around €55/ton CO2e at the expected launch in 2027.
  • Power demand in NW Europe (Germany, France UK, Netherlands and Belgium) is expected to grow by 2.6% on the year, or 35TWh, to a total of 1,385TWh in 2025.
  • France’s CRE is issuing several recommendations to avoid the rising amount of negative priced hours.
  • The unplanned outage at the 1.33GW Flamanville 1 nuclear reactor has been extended by five hours to end on Tuesday 22:00CET, before ramping up for two days.
  • Vattenfall will curtail capacity at its 1.1GW Forsmark unit 1 to around 700MW on 27 Nov at 08:00 CET for 9 hours for “planned testing.”
  • Swiss hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 47 – declined by 4.2 percentage points last week to 68.6% of capacity, the lowest level since early July.
  • Axpo Nordic and Stegra have signed a three-year PPA to supply a total of 2.25TWh for Stegra’s green hydrogen, iron, and steel plant in Sweden, starting in 2027.
  • The Nordic's will apply a 15-minute trading period on the intraday market starting on 18 March 2025 for delivery the next day, with Sweden aligning its imbalance prices to the Nordic schedule.
  • The UK will launch bring forward a consultation on changing its EV mandate, while sticking to the deadline to phase out new petrol and diesel car sales by 2030.
  • Lithuania plans to expand mandatory energy audits and require energy management systems for high-energy consumers as part of new legislation aligned with EU energy efficiency directives.