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POWER: EU End of Day Power Summary: FR-DE Nov Discount Widens to Oct High

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The French-German November discount has remined firm from the previous session to widen to its highest so far this month since becoming the front month at €-14.04/MWh, with both markets weighed down by decreases in TTF and emissions.

  • France Base Power NOV 24 down 1.3% at 73.21 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0.7% at 87.38 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.2% at 61.90 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.6% at 40.715 EUR/MWh
  • TTF prices have eased from their 4 October peak of €41.18/MWh, as Slovakia plans to continue gas transit via Ukraine. Norway's pipeline supply and LNG imports are rising, despite the extended Troll outage.
  • EU ETS Dec 24 has given back losses made earlier in the session, with TTF also rebounding slightly from midday lows, while forecasts are pointing to a downward revision in temperatures.
  • EU carbon prices are forecast to fall to an average of €65/t CO2e in 2024, before rising to €71/t in 2025 and nearly €150/t CO2e by 2030. However, the increase may be limited by persistently low emissions, which reduce demand for allowances, and a surplus of permits.
  • And EUA December 2024 futures prices have seen less volatility recently with the 30-day average last seen at 38% as of end September, compared with above 60% in May, when elections in Europe and volatility in gas prices had supported EUA price volatility.
  • The latest TTF rally, coupled with lower carbon prices, have weighed on the competitiveness of gas-fired power plants against coal.
  • The France-Italy Piossasco-Grande-Ile 2 power interconnector is currently scheduled to return on Tuesday 16:00 CET, after an unplanned outage that started on 2 September.
  • The 1.31GW Belleville nuclear reactor had an unplanned outage 17:29 CET on Monday and is currently scheduled to return on 8 October.
  • France’s hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 40 – decreased by 0.64 percentage points to 85.4% of capacity.
  • Solar PV output in Spain has reached 37.55TWh so far this year as of 5 October, surpassing solar output of 37.47TWh for all of 2023.
  • Groups including RenewableUK, Offshore Energies UK, and UK Steel warned that dividing Great Britain into regional price zones would harm low-carbon energy investment and raise electricity costs for energy-intensive industries.
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The French-German November discount has remined firm from the previous session to widen to its highest so far this month since becoming the front month at €-14.04/MWh, with both markets weighed down by decreases in TTF and emissions.

  • France Base Power NOV 24 down 1.3% at 73.21 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0.7% at 87.38 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.2% at 61.90 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.6% at 40.715 EUR/MWh
  • TTF prices have eased from their 4 October peak of €41.18/MWh, as Slovakia plans to continue gas transit via Ukraine. Norway's pipeline supply and LNG imports are rising, despite the extended Troll outage.
  • EU ETS Dec 24 has given back losses made earlier in the session, with TTF also rebounding slightly from midday lows, while forecasts are pointing to a downward revision in temperatures.
  • EU carbon prices are forecast to fall to an average of €65/t CO2e in 2024, before rising to €71/t in 2025 and nearly €150/t CO2e by 2030. However, the increase may be limited by persistently low emissions, which reduce demand for allowances, and a surplus of permits.
  • And EUA December 2024 futures prices have seen less volatility recently with the 30-day average last seen at 38% as of end September, compared with above 60% in May, when elections in Europe and volatility in gas prices had supported EUA price volatility.
  • The latest TTF rally, coupled with lower carbon prices, have weighed on the competitiveness of gas-fired power plants against coal.
  • The France-Italy Piossasco-Grande-Ile 2 power interconnector is currently scheduled to return on Tuesday 16:00 CET, after an unplanned outage that started on 2 September.
  • The 1.31GW Belleville nuclear reactor had an unplanned outage 17:29 CET on Monday and is currently scheduled to return on 8 October.
  • France’s hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 40 – decreased by 0.64 percentage points to 85.4% of capacity.
  • Solar PV output in Spain has reached 37.55TWh so far this year as of 5 October, surpassing solar output of 37.47TWh for all of 2023.
  • Groups including RenewableUK, Offshore Energies UK, and UK Steel warned that dividing Great Britain into regional price zones would harm low-carbon energy investment and raise electricity costs for energy-intensive industries.