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POWER: France November Power Rallies

POWER
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The French November power base-load contract is rising sharply today to the highest since 4 October, with forecasts suggesting a slightly longer period of below-normal temperatures, while wind output is forecast to be relatively low. Additional upside has been provided by a weekly fall in French hydro stocks and higher EU carbon allowances. 

  • France Base Power NOV 24 up 4.8% at 74.5 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 1.9% at 86.34 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 2.7% at 61.89 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.4% at 38.775 EUR/MWh
  • The France-Germany November power spread has declined to -11.18€/MWh today, the lowest spread since 3 October and down from a high of -14.18€/MWh earlier this month.
  • EU ETS Dec24 allowances are recovering today but remain within this week’s range with forecasts suggesting a slightly longer period of below-average temperatures in NW Europe, while EU equities are on track to recover from Tuesday’s low. This is despite renewed bearish sentiment in speculator positionings, with net short positions at the highest since mid-March. Allowances are again diverging from moves in EU gas prices that are pulling back today.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested temperatures in Paris have been revised slightly lower with below normal mean temperatures on 10-15 October, before rising above normal.
  • Wind output in France is forecast at 1.74GW to 6.33GW during base-load hours between 10 and 19 October. This is equivalent to load factors of 9-32% according to SpotRenewables.
  • France’s hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 40 – decreased by 0.64 percentage points to 85.4% of capacity. Stocks, however, remained well above the five-year average.
  • Nuclear availability in France increased to 72% as of Wednesday morning, up from 68% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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The French November power base-load contract is rising sharply today to the highest since 4 October, with forecasts suggesting a slightly longer period of below-normal temperatures, while wind output is forecast to be relatively low. Additional upside has been provided by a weekly fall in French hydro stocks and higher EU carbon allowances. 

  • France Base Power NOV 24 up 4.8% at 74.5 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 1.9% at 86.34 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 2.7% at 61.89 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.4% at 38.775 EUR/MWh
  • The France-Germany November power spread has declined to -11.18€/MWh today, the lowest spread since 3 October and down from a high of -14.18€/MWh earlier this month.
  • EU ETS Dec24 allowances are recovering today but remain within this week’s range with forecasts suggesting a slightly longer period of below-average temperatures in NW Europe, while EU equities are on track to recover from Tuesday’s low. This is despite renewed bearish sentiment in speculator positionings, with net short positions at the highest since mid-March. Allowances are again diverging from moves in EU gas prices that are pulling back today.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested temperatures in Paris have been revised slightly lower with below normal mean temperatures on 10-15 October, before rising above normal.
  • Wind output in France is forecast at 1.74GW to 6.33GW during base-load hours between 10 and 19 October. This is equivalent to load factors of 9-32% according to SpotRenewables.
  • France’s hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 40 – decreased by 0.64 percentage points to 85.4% of capacity. Stocks, however, remained well above the five-year average.
  • Nuclear availability in France increased to 72% as of Wednesday morning, up from 68% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.