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POWER: German Nov Power Eyes 5% Weekly Decline

POWER
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The German November October power base-load contract is on track for a weekly net decline of 4.81%, weighed on by sharp losses in EU carbon allowances. Closer in, wind output in Germany is forecast to soar from mid/end next week. 

  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0.4% at 86.5 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 1.6% at 61.75 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.8% at 39.595 EUR/MWh
  • TTF is set for a net weekly gain due to Middle East risks as the European market remains sensitive to supply disruptions ahead of the winter heating season.  Recovering pipeline supplies and higher LNG sendout are covering the current demand boost due to colder weather.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is pulling lower this morning, weighed on by lower EU gas prices, with allowances currently tracking a weekly net decline of 6.85%, diverging from moves in natural gas prices spurred by the renewed MidEast risk premium. The latest German EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall sharply on Saturday to 3.28GW during base load, down from 8.31GW forecasted for Friday. Solar PV output is forecast rise on Saturday to 11.59GW during peak load, compared with 8.82GW forecasted for Friday according to SpotRenewables.
  • German wind output is forecast to pick up again mid next week, reaching up to 35.01GW during base load on 11 October.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures are forecast to remain below normal until 6 October, after which temperatures will rise above normal until 10 October, before rising back below the average. Mean temperatures are forecast between 9-15C during the period, revised down on the day.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to peak at 60.50GW on Friday, before falling to a maximum of 52.28GW and 48.49GW on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, Entso-E data showed. 
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The German November October power base-load contract is on track for a weekly net decline of 4.81%, weighed on by sharp losses in EU carbon allowances. Closer in, wind output in Germany is forecast to soar from mid/end next week. 

  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0.4% at 86.5 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 1.6% at 61.75 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.8% at 39.595 EUR/MWh
  • TTF is set for a net weekly gain due to Middle East risks as the European market remains sensitive to supply disruptions ahead of the winter heating season.  Recovering pipeline supplies and higher LNG sendout are covering the current demand boost due to colder weather.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is pulling lower this morning, weighed on by lower EU gas prices, with allowances currently tracking a weekly net decline of 6.85%, diverging from moves in natural gas prices spurred by the renewed MidEast risk premium. The latest German EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall sharply on Saturday to 3.28GW during base load, down from 8.31GW forecasted for Friday. Solar PV output is forecast rise on Saturday to 11.59GW during peak load, compared with 8.82GW forecasted for Friday according to SpotRenewables.
  • German wind output is forecast to pick up again mid next week, reaching up to 35.01GW during base load on 11 October.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures are forecast to remain below normal until 6 October, after which temperatures will rise above normal until 10 October, before rising back below the average. Mean temperatures are forecast between 9-15C during the period, revised down on the day.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to peak at 60.50GW on Friday, before falling to a maximum of 52.28GW and 48.49GW on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, Entso-E data showed.