POWER: German Sept, Oct Trend Down

 German Sept and Oct power contracts are trading lower in the morning session- following similar price movements in European gas, however, slight gains in emissions are limiting losses.

• Germany Base Power SEP 24 down 0.1% at 87.24 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.2% at 70.61 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 down 0.5% at 37.48 EUR/MWh
• TTF front month is unchanged on the day as EU storage levels are above 90%, however, prices are still supported amid unplanned supply risk disruptions and a cold winter.
• EU ETS Dec24 is edging up despite losses in natural gas prices and a lower EU EUA CAP auction closing price on Monday.  The next EU EUA CAP 3 auction will clear at 11:00CET today.
• In Germany, wind output is forecast at an 11% load factor, or 7.34GW, up from a 6% load factor estimated for today, however, at a comparatively low load factor prices could still be elevated. Wind will then drop between 5-9% load factors over 29-30 August – likely supporting power costs, according to SpotRenewables.
• The latest 6-10 days ECMWF for Germany suggest average temperatures will be above the 30-year norm of around 16C over 27 August- 4 September, with max temperatures reaching as high 29C on 29 August – possibly spurring cooling demand.