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POWER: German Spot Power to Fall on Wind, Demand

POWER

German front-month power is edging higher with gains in carbon allowances and gas. German spot prices are likely to drop sharply amid forecasts for higher wind output and lower demand. 

  • European gas benchmarks are edging slightly higher today but have priced out most of the Sudzha related concerns as flows remain intact and there appears to be little sign from either side to halt them.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging slightly higher on Wednesday with small gains in natural gas. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET. 
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested mean temperatures have been revised down at the start of the forecast period. However, temperatures will rise well above normal from 27 August. 
  • In Germany, wind output is forecast to rise to 23.44GW during base load on Friday, up from 16.75GW forecast for Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to edge higher to 13.18GW during base load on Friday, up from 13.25GW forecast for Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Power demand in Germany is today seen to peak at 63.27GW and at 62.69GW on Friday according to Bloomberg. 
  • German power net exports are scheduled at 3.145GW to Austria and Switzerland today, up from 3.04GW scheduled for Wednesday. Net imports from France are scheduled at 2.06GW, compared with the 5-day moving average of 2.46GW, Entso-E data showed. 
    • Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 0.2% at 89.89 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 up 0.4% at 72.42 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas SEP 24 up 0.4% at 37.14 EUR/MWh
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